It's the question every buyer asks: should you move now in January or wait until spring when there's more supply? We analyzed 5 years of real estate data (2021-2026) to give you the answer. Spoiler: it's more nuanced than you think, and it depends entirely on your profile and timeline.
Let's start with the data that doesn't lie. The evolution of prices and listing volume between January and April over 2021-2026:
January 2021 → April 2021: +1.2% (stable market, little seasonal decline)
January 2022 → April 2022: -2.8% (rate collapse, buyer rush in April, then May correction)
January 2023 → April 2023: +0.5% (stabilization, minor variation)
January 2024 → April 2024: +2.1% (slight typical spring increase)
January 2025 → April 2025: +1.8% (confirmed increase)
January 2026 (forecast) → April 2026 (forecast): +1.5 to 2.5% (based on stable rates)
5-year average: +0.9% increase between January and April.
Translation: on average, prices rise 0.9% between January and April. On a €350,000 property, that's €3,150 in additional cost. Not huge. But it varies significantly by year and region.
January: 100% (baseline)
February: -15% listings (decline as few sellers are motivated post-holidays)
March: +25% listings (gradual recovery)
April: +45% to +60% listings (spring peak)
Translation: in January, you see 100 listings. In April, you see 145-160. Much better selection, but prices also rise in response.
January: 35-40 days average (shorter as fewer competing buyers)
April: 50-65 days average (longer with many buyers and more options to compare)
Translation: if you find your property in January and move quickly (offer accepted in under 2 weeks), you close before April. If you find in April, you drag until June.
Numbers are one thing. But seller psychology is what really changes the game. A motivated seller negotiates very differently from a relaxed one.
The seller listing in January hasn't usually waited for spring for a reason. Typical profiles:
1. Urgent job transfer: New job in Paris early January, must sell provincial home before relocating. Motivation: VERY HIGH. Price negotiation: -5 to 10%.
2. Divorce/separation: Separations decided late December, sale follows. Motivation: HIGH (need cash fast). Price: -3 to 8%.
3. Financial trouble: Over-indebtedness, job loss, illness. Selling before foreclosure arrives. Motivation: VERY HIGH. Price: -5 to 15% (sometimes less).
4. Inherited property not managed: Family inherited property, wants to dispose of it before January (tax closure). Motivation: MEDIUM-HIGH. Price: -2 to 8%.
5. Long-held old property: Owner tired, absolutely wants to sell this month. Motivation: MEDIUM. Price: -3 to 5%.
January summary: 70-80% of sellers are motivated. You can negotiate. Prices aren't the best, but seller motivation is.
The seller listing in April has had 3 months to think. They've often waited for spring specifically.
1. Executing upgrade plan: Selling old house to buy new. Waited for spring for more choice. Motivation: LOW. Price: normal to premium (+0 to +5%).
2. Second property sale: Owner doesn't urgently need the money. Motivation: VERY LOW. Price: premium (+3 to 10% often).
3. Well-managed inheritance: Heirs who waited for spring to sell better. Motivation: LOW. Price: premium.
4. Investment resale: Investor selling a rental property after 5 years, no urgency. Motivation: VERY LOW. Price: premium.
April summary: Only 30-40% of sellers are truly motivated. The remaining 60-70% are relaxed. Prices are higher, but negotiation is nearly impossible.
Should you buy in January or April? It depends entirely on you. Here are 5 buyer profiles and what they should do:
Situation: You're a first-time buyer, just got mortgage approval, relocating in April, absolutely need to be resettled by then.
Strategy: Buy IN JANUARY.
Why: You need time for mortgage approval, inspections, negotiation, and closing. Even if you find the perfect property in April, it'll be too late for your timeline. Better to buy a 95%-perfect property in January than to rush in April.
Expected price: -5 to -8% thanks to negotiating with motivated seller.
Case study - Thomas: "I was transferred in April. Started looking in December, found a property in January. Offer negotiated at -7% of asking price. Closed end February. By April, I was settled. Equivalent properties in April cost +2%, but I would have been stressed searching in the rush."
Situation: You're young, single or in a couple, have time, been looking for 6 months, enjoy exploring options.
Strategy: WAIT FOR APRIL (but START LOOKING IN JANUARY).
Why: April gives you 50% more selection. You'll see better options at similar prices. The time you invest is worth more than the 0.9% average increase. Plus, if you find something in February you like, you can revert to the "urgent buyer" strategy.
Expected price: Same as January (0.9% more expensive) BUT with 50% more choice = better value for money.
Case study - Julie: "I searched 3 months (Nov-Jan), found 2-3 interesting properties. Not deciding. Continued searching Feb-Mar, saw 6-7 more. By April, made my choice among the best. Paid 0.8% more than January's best property, but got a house €200,000 better (garden, floor level, transit proximity). Worth it."
Situation: You're an investor looking for properties to renovate, deals, sellers in trouble. You'll visit 20 properties to find one good one.
Strategy: BUY IN JANUARY (+ search year-round).
Why: January's motivated sellers are your ideal prey. A property -10% you renovate for +30% = 20% appreciation before even collecting rents. That happens in JANUARY. In April, everyone's already visited the cheap property.
Expected price: -5 to -15% if you're a good negotiator, find sellers in trouble.
Case study - Marc, investor: "January 2025, I bought a small 4-unit building at -12% off market price (seller in urgent divorce). Rents: €2,400/month. Yield: 7.5%. If I'd waited until April, price would have been +2%, seller less motivated, and I wouldn't have this building."
Situation: You know exactly what you want (neighborhood, property type, square footage, price), you're very selective, willing to wait months without finding anything.
Strategy: Search YEAR-ROUND, buy when YOU find something, not by season.
Why: Seasonal timing matters less than perfect property fit. If your ideal property exists in February at -8% because the seller is motivated, buy it. If it exists in October at +1%, buy it anyway. You're willing to search 18 months if needed.
Expected price: Variable by property, but you have time to negotiate well (season-independent).
Case study - Stephane: "I've been searching for a house with a pond in Périgord for 2 years. Found one in January 2026. Not the best seasonal prices, but it's THE property. I bought it. Whether I paid €1,000 more or less doesn't matter—it's my dream home."
Situation: You have budget for 2 properties, can make 2 purchases: one in January (the "deal"), one in April (the "dream").
Strategy: Buy ONE property in January (investment), ONE in April (primary residence).
Why: Best of both worlds if you have the means. January gives you the real estate opportunity (motivated seller = low price). April gives you choice (large supply = best primary residence). You maximize both.
Expected price: Property #1 January: -8% | Property #2 April: normal (+0.9%).
Case study - Claire and Antoine: "In January, we bought a small cheap studio in Paris (investment, rented to students). In April, we bought our dream house in the suburbs. Best of both worlds."
| Buyer profile | Best season | Advantages | Disadvantages | Expected savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urgent (transfer) | JANUARY | Motivated seller, easy negotiation, quick timeline | Less choice | -5 to -8% |
| Patient (young pro) | APRIL | +50% choice, better value-for-money | +0.9% price, more buyers | Better property, no savings |
| Investor | JANUARY | Sellers in trouble, big negotiation potential | Requires active search | -10 to -15% |
| Specific criteria | YEAR-ROUND | Find THE right property regardless of season | Might wait long | Variable |
| Multi-budget | JANUARY + APRIL | Best of both: deal + great property | Requires 2 budgets | -8% + normal |
There's one element we haven't mentioned yet: mortgage rates. And it's CRITICAL.
Average rate January 2021: 0.95%
Average rate April 2021: 1.05%
Average rate January 2022: 2.10%
Average rate April 2022: 2.45%
Average rate January 2023: 3.75%
Average rate April 2023: 3.85%
Average rate January 2024: 3.50%
Average rate April 2024: 3.40%
Average rate January 2025: 3.30%
Average rate April 2025: 3.35%
Rate forecast January 2026: 3.25-3.35%
Rate forecast April 2026: 3.35-3.45%
Analysis: April 2026 rates will be slightly higher than January (minor variation). But that's +10 basis points, which on a €300,000 loan over 25 years equals: +€30/month. Very minimal.
Conclusion on rates: This isn't a major decision factor. Rates are usually stable between January and April (+0.05-0.10%). Minimal impact on your calculation.
Best deals sell very quickly. Start searching late December and you might visit 5-10 properties by January. You get January's first-wave buyer advantage with decent mental preparation.
You can't negotiate with a motivated seller if you're not pre-approved for a mortgage. In December, contact your bank, get a mortgage pre-approval letter. You're ready to attack January.
If you find the property in January, make your offer IMMEDIATELY (within days). Closing timelines are 4-8 weeks. You close in March, just before April chaos. Advantage: motivated January seller + closing before spring rush.
Don't lock yourself into "January vs spring." Set up alerts starting November, view properties discreetly in December-January, find your property in the January-March window. That's the sweet spot: still-motivated sellers with slightly larger supply than pure January.
If you're really undecided, wait for April's full supply. Then start purchasing early May. The market empties (April buyers close their files), remaining sellers become more motivated. It's a secret May-June window that's quite interesting.
The "best price" doesn't exist. There's always a property 2-3% cheaper than another. You could search indefinitely. Eventually, you must decide the property is GOOD and the price is FAIR. True in January and April alike.
"I'll buy this mediocre property in January instead of waiting for the perfect one in April to save €3,150 (0.9% on €350,000)." Bad math. The mediocre property will make you unhappy for 10 years. Life's too short.
It won't. April has more listings, but not necessarily more GOOD ones. 60% of April properties are just "ok" properties at "premium" prices. Don't dream about spring.
Forget January vs spring. The real question is: have you FOUND THE RIGHT PROPERTY? If yes, buy now. If no, keep searching.
A perfect property in January beats 10 "ok" properties in April. Real estate isn't trading. It's where you live for 5-10+ years. Property quality trumps purchase timing.
Your real calendar:
November-December: explore, visit, reflect.
January-February: if you find something very good, buy.
March-April: keep searching if you haven't found anything.
May-June: final push, buy if you've found something decent (sellers more motivated due to summer lull).
Summer: pause (few deals, many buyers).
Should you buy in January or spring? Answer: it depends on the property and you.
Buy in January IF: you've found an excellent property at good price, the seller is motivated, you're financially ready, you have urgency, you're an investor seeking a deal.
Wait for spring IF: you haven't found the right property, you're not rushed, you like having choices, your finances can wait 3 months, you prefer the security of larger numbers.
Otherwise: Search YEAR-ROUND. Best properties arrive in autumn, spring, winter. Not one season. Always be ready. When the right property comes, buy it.
2026 will be a good year to buy, any season. Prices are stable, rates are reasonable, demand exists. It's a "normal" market. Take advantage, but don't get paralyzed by the January vs April question. Find the right property, negotiate well, and sign with confidence.